Shell dumps wind energy project, to look for 'more lucrative oil schemes'

Now that his thread has fallen from front page and can only be read by friends (if anyone cares anyhow):

http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/eu-eyes-common-energy-market-mediterranean/article-169236

This almost non-noticed little tidbit is changing the rules of the game completely.

Just after the Bali conference, Colonel Gahddafi came to Paris and Madrid, just as did President Bouteflika. And Germany gave up its resistance against the EU-MENA pact relaunched by Nicolas Sarkozy with José Luis Zapatero walking along. Norway hinted to start with a huge wind-farm plan (floating these ones, which could proove a lot cheaper than present off-shore installations) with a pilot project, and they still have on their table the tidal-energy plan for some of their Fjords. If they wanted, Norway alone could provide for the entire energy needs of Western Europe as a whole.

It started a bit earlier in summer 2007, when the German Energy and Environment Ministry published its feasability plan for a HVDC grid stretching from the Sahara to Northern Europe coming out at thrilling business attractiveness. Thing that was already known and even before that, in January 2007, the climate goals for the EU until 2050 were etablished that can realistically only be achieved by doing this or something similar. It usually takes a very good insight into the market to derive strategies and actions for mere goals - regular journalists are incapable of that.

The Grand Plan was in the shelf for after the Bali conference to not add pressure to calls for Europe to reduce fossile energy consumption even more. This way, the Bali conference awaits from Europe only things that Europe is going to top anyhow, without the slightest obligations towards the international community.

The basic concept concerning the Sahara bit is this:

http://trec-eumena.net/concept.html

Thing is that it is going to be implemented much faster than the original concept envisadged. What was foreseen for 2050 will likely not come later than 2025, given the hints from publis mid-terms plans of major EU nations. Money attributed to this far tops the original plan.

Add to it the Norvegian wind and tidal projects and add to it the German project to use natural gas from Russia to do hydrogen conversion plus carbon sequestration in the salt layers in Northern Germany, as well as the nuclear plants offered by France to the entire MENA region (base capacity) and you have the future EU-MENA Common Energy Market in the scheme of things.

In that context, ie. considering the cost positions achievable using best geographical position and the EU sponsored HVDC grid (at no cost for private business), then the cost position of windmills in Britain (or other comparables) is dismal in comparison. The Grand Plan has changed the environment for alternative energy projects in Europe radically.

It is politically highly touchy; therefore the extremely defensive nature of its publication.

Political pitfalls include:

a) The "British Empire" nostalgics (like Spaman on this board) who will claim that "Europe wants to take over Britain's energy supply". In essence its a fact that Britain will or give up its energy independence towards a Common European Energy Market or have an entirely incompetitive energy situation compared to EU peers, regardless of if fossil or alternative.

b) The effect that this will prelude the EU expansion towards the MENA region. It is outmost clear that a common market on energy matters will ultimately lead to a common market on all other issues, iow, while maybe not by name, though effectively de facto an expanion of Europe up to the Sahara and the Arab peninsula. In this context you may remember the opening of a French military base in the UAE; this will be the extremis of the future security umbrellah of the Western European Defence Organisation in the making. EU expansion is politically touchy in Europe today but the EU is working on it already.

c) Which brings Israel into play. As seen with the presence of EU troops in Lebanon, the future strategy of the EU affects directly the Middle East. Yemen and Saudi-Arabia have been polishing doorknobs in Europe because they want EU protection against the US. They are also panting literally to take a share in the alternative energy cake of the EU-MENA. In fact, one of the very first of the solar thermal units of TREC is foreseen for the Sinai peninsula (electricity for Gaza!!!). Another one of the first is for desalination in Yemen (Sanaa is running out of water). The inclusion of these into a mega-grid is part of TREC.

d) The international community itself. In fact, on the corridors of Brussels the idea is very popular to consider forcing exporters towards Europe to abide to certain standards, which include labour standards but especially also environmental standards. The intention in Europe develops to force the remaining world to go green to maintain access to the European market, which is now the world's largest and is going to be even larger as Europe expands. This will include the US, as the US, as things move, will not be able to stand aside as Europe goes down this line.

In summary, something VERY big is happening right now. Local media grab up bits and pieces of this without ever realizing the big picture. But within the market itself, the entity of business strategies is being reshaped these days, as documents this little tidbit in the quote above which nor the journalist nor any uniformed reader can halfway understand.

Bali was the starting shot. Europe now positions and it does it fast to escape the pitfalls. In 20 years from now you won't recognize the power constellations in the Arab world, in Europe and in the world as a whole. And alternative energies is the key. The US is sleeping. When they finally wake up for what's in the making, they'll foam. Because Europe prepares the terrain for an "odd man out" in the Middle East of which the US will find it hard to recover ever.

And the day, Russia signs an association agreement with the EU - that day will come - you won't recognize the world anymore. Its all in the making RIGHT NOW.

Two words: "transmission losses." How are you going to get that cheap power to Europe without losing more than half of it to the gods of electrical resistance?

Thanks for comment.

On the traffic issue:

You might have noticed that European car manufacturers are somewhat slow on gasoline-hybrids and are leading in fuel cells/electric while pushing diesel to edge in the meantime.

This too has a reason.

But that's an entirely different topic and I might post something about this on some other occasion. It would take a very deep look into car technology and regional energy balances. But the reasoning is geo-strategic and politically wanted.

And: Don't worry about biofuels. In half a year nobody will talk about this anymore.